As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election, debates surrounding regional equity, political alliances, and religious dynamics are heating up. With the North’s historical numerical dominance and the South’s current hold on power, the election promises to be a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s democratic journey.

North-South Political Dynamics: Historical Context

The North has consistently leveraged its numerical advantage to influence presidential outcomes. However, history shows that alliances have been crucial in shaping the presidency:

1. Buhari’s Early Struggles (2003–2011): Despite strong support from the North, Muhammadu Buhari failed to secure the presidency until 2015 when a strategic alliance with the South-West, led by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, changed the game.
2. The 2015 Breakthrough: The APC capitalized on PDP’s internal crises and defections, ending the party’s 16-year rule. Buhari’s victory was a result of this strategic North-South handshake.

The 2023 Elections: A Changing Landscape

The 2023 election saw a shift in northern voting patterns:

• The APC lost four key North-West states, including Katsina and Kaduna, to the PDP.
• Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP won Kano, further fragmenting the region’s vote.

These shifts highlight the need for parties to reassess their strategies ahead of 2027.

2027: Calls for Tinubu’s Second Term

Akume’s Advocacy for Continuity

Senator George Akume, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), recently called on northern elites to support President Tinubu’s reelection bid, urging them to wait until 2031 to reclaim the presidency.

“If it is the will of God for Atiku to be President, even at 90 years old, it will happen. But northerners eyeing 2027 should look beyond that year,” Akume stated.

Atiku’s Counterpoint

Atiku Abubakar, a key contender from the North, fired back, arguing that by 2027, the South would have enjoyed 17 years of leadership, compared to the North’s 11 years since 1999.

“Where does equity reside when the South would have had 17 years under Obasanjo, Jonathan, and Tinubu, while the North lags with 11 years under Yar’Adua and Buhari?” Atiku questioned.

Emerging Contenders and Party Dynamics

Atiku Abubakar

If Atiku runs again in 2027, it will mark his fourth presidential bid since 2007. His track record positions him as a strong candidate, but internal PDP dynamics and the need for alliances may complicate his path.

Other Aspirants

• Bala Mohammed (Bauchi Governor): A potential PDP candidate from the North-East, Bala Mohammed represents a region often seen as marginalized within the North.
• APC’s Northern Strategy: The APC must address growing dissatisfaction in the North, particularly among groups that feel underrepresented in Tinubu’s administration.