Industry experts predict a significant drop in fuel prices in 2025, with petrol prices potentially falling to as low as N500 per litre. Currently, prices range from N900 to N950 at many fuel stations. The expected price reduction is attributed to the deregulation of the downstream sector, a stable foreign exchange policy, and the Naira-for-crude policy.
Marketers cite the positive impact of the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Dangote refineries coming online, which will increase local refining capacity. The introduction of multiple refining sources is expected to foster healthy price competition and reduce dependence on imported petrol.
With the country’s current daily petrol consumption reaching 40 million litres, local refineries contribute significantly to meeting demand. The Dangote Refinery produces about 30 million litres of petrol, while the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries have also begun contributing to supply.
The Federal Government’s decision to allow payment for crude oil in Naira, alongside the rebound of modular refineries, further strengthens the potential for lower fuel prices in the coming year. Industry stakeholders believe the new policies and increasing local production will result in cheaper petrol, potentially below N500 per litre in 2025.