Economic experts at the recent FirstBank forum expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook for Nigeria’s economy in 2025. The discussions focused on potential recovery drivers and sustained growth despite the economic challenges of 2024.
Olusegun Alebiosu, CEO of First Bank Group, conveyed optimism about the proposed N49.7 trillion 2025 budget, which he believes will provide significant economic stimulus for households and businesses. Despite the economic strain caused by painful reforms in 2024, including inflation reaching a 30-year high of 34.6%, Alebiosu suggested that 2025 holds more promise.
“The government’s proposed NGN49.7 trillion 2025 budget is expected to provide sufficient economic stimulus, as the likelihood of poor budget implementation is lower due to the government’s improving revenue position,” Alebiosu stated. He noted early signs of economic improvement, including steady GDP growth in 2024, with a high of 3.46% in Q3. The revenue-to-debt service ratio also improved to 68%, and foreign reserves surpassed $40 billion. The introduction of an electronic foreign exchange matching system in December 2024 contributed to market stability, and falling petrol prices in the downstream sector further supported economic recovery.
Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Limited, predicted moderate growth for Nigeria in 2025. He emphasized that the country is nearing economic equilibrium, meaning changes in 2025 would have less severe impacts than those in 2024. Rewane expects the naira to appreciate moderately by the end of Q1 2025, following its stabilization in December 2024. However, he cautioned that the government’s target of reducing inflation to 15% is overly optimistic. Rewane projected inflation to fall to between 25% and 27% in 2025.
The 2025 budget, presented by President Bola Tinubu on December 18, 2024, includes allocations for key projects. Among them is N231.7 billion for immunization, malaria vaccination, and a vaccine tracking system, with N188.5 billion allocated to the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI). Additionally, N4 billion has been earmarked for constructing a new presidential helipad and jetty in Lagos, under the Ministry of Works, which received N1.1 trillion for 2025.
The Green Line Metro Rail Project, a 68km rail network connecting key areas in Lagos, has been allocated N146.14 billion as counterpart funding.
The National Assembly is expected to pass the 2025 budget in early February, with the joint committee on appropriation presenting its report on January 31.