The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita declined to $835.49 in 2025 from $877.07 in 2024, marking a 4.74% decrease. This reflects a sustained downward trend since 2014 when the figure peaked at $3,220.
GDP per capita measures the average economic output per person, indicating the standard of living within a country. The IMF projects that Nigeria’s GDP per capita will rise in the coming years, crossing the $1,000 mark by 2028, reaching $1,040.
This decline comes amidst a GDP rebasing exercise by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which now includes new sectors like the digital economy, pension funds, modular refineries, and informal activities. Despite the drop, Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from Stanbic IBTC Bank reflects growing business confidence, with increased output and new orders in early 2025.
Stanbic IBTC’s Head of Equity Research, Muyiwa Oni, noted that private sector activity improved in January 2025, though slightly lower than December 2024 levels. “The rise in new orders shows improving customer demand and business confidence,” he added.
Meanwhile, the IMF projects Nigeria’s real GDP growth at 3.2% in 2025, with inflation expected to drop to 25%. This contrasts with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s (NESG) projection of 5.5% growth, contingent on effective policy implementation. NESG’s Chief Economist, Olusegun Omisakin, emphasized that “inefficient policies could limit growth to 3.4% or even 2.7% if reforms are reversed.”
Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso offered a more optimistic outlook, projecting 4.17% GDP growth in 2025. He cited reforms, stable oil prices, and increased refining capacity from the Dangote refinery as key growth drivers. Cardoso also expects inflation to decline as economic reforms take effect, supported by stable foreign exchange inflows.
Nigeria’s economic trajectory will depend heavily on sustained reforms, stable oil production, and effective collaboration between government bodies and the private sector.
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