Tanzania’s political climate is growing increasingly tense ahead of its October 2025 general elections, with signs pointing toward a significant erosion of democratic values in the East African nation. The disqualification of the main opposition party, Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), has sparked national and international concern about the legitimacy and transparency of the upcoming polls. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), which has governed since independence and won every general election since the reintroduction of multiparty democracy in 1995, is poised to secure its seventh consecutive term, raising critical questions about the future of democratic governance in Tanzania.
The arrest of CHADEMA’s chairperson, Tundu Lissu, on treason charges alongside additional accusations of incitement and dissemination of false information underscores the Tanzanian government’s increasing intolerance toward dissent. His party’s campaign for electoral reform under the slogan “no reforms, no elections” has been framed by the judiciary as an effort to undermine national stability, a move critics argue is a clear abuse of state power. With treason charges carrying the death penalty and being non-bailable, this escalation reflects a worrying shift toward authoritarianism.
Since 2016, global democratic watchdog Freedom House downgraded Tanzania from “Partly Free” to “Not Free,” citing the weakening of political rights and civil liberties. Despite hopes for democratic renewal under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who succeeded the late President John Magufuli in 2021, the anticipated reforms have fallen short. While her administration introduced the 4Rs agenda; reconciliation, resilience, reforms, and rebuilding critics argue that newly enacted electoral laws in 2024 failed to deliver substantive change. Although the establishment of an Independent National Electoral Commission appeared to be a step forward, the retention of presidential powers to appoint commissioners casts doubt on the commission’s impartiality, reinforcing opposition calls for meaningful electoral reform.
Tanzania’s democracy has increasingly mirrored what political analysts term “electoral authoritarianism,” where elections are held not to promote democratic representation but to maintain the status quo through patronage, intimidation, and systemic manipulation. Under Magufuli’s leadership, civil society, opposition voices, and independent media endured unprecedented repression. Laws such as the Cybercrimes Act and the Electronic and Postal Communications Regulations were used to silence dissent, deepen surveillance, and curb digital freedoms. President Hassan’s early attempts to reverse these measures have been undermined by rising tensions within CCM, where factions now challenge her legitimacy and accuse the state of ongoing repression, including alleged abductions of critics and manipulated nomination processes.
The CCM’s historical dominance, similar to other liberation movements-turned-governing parties in Southern Africa including Zimbabwe’s ZANU-PF, Mozambique’s FRELIMO, and Angola’s MPLA has been sustained through deeply entrenched political patronage networks. These parties have often used state structures to maintain power, limiting electoral competition and weakening institutional checks and balances. The 2020 elections, which handed Magufuli 84.4 percent of the presidential vote and awarded CCM 261 of 264 parliamentary seats, exemplify the lopsided political landscape. The trend continued in the 2024 local government elections with CCM securing 99.3 percent of the vote.
Today, civic dialogue in Tanzania has increasingly migrated to digital platforms such as X Spaces, WhatsApp groups, and Clubhouse, as public discourse becomes riskier in offline spaces. The government’s response imposing tighter internet controls—mirrors repressive digital strategies seen across authoritarian states. However, Tanzanians have turned to virtual private networks (VPNs) to circumvent censorship and sustain engagement. Drawing lessons from recent youth-led protests in Kenya, which leveraged social media for mass mobilization, Tanzanian authorities have remained wary of allowing unrestricted digital expression.
The exclusion of CHADEMA and the fragmentation of opposition efforts partly due to the perceived co-optation of other opposition parties—has left Tanzanians with limited electoral choices. Meanwhile, international efforts to hold Tanzania accountable remain inconsistent. Though the African Union (AU), East African Community (EAC), and Southern African Development Community (SADC) have sent observer missions, their track record suggests a reluctance to confront electoral malpractice. Their reports often avoid declaring polls “unfree and unfair,” instead favouring diplomatic neutrality that does little to challenge deteriorating democratic conditions.
Pressure from global actors has so far yielded limited results. The European Parliament’s resolution in May condemning Lissu’s arrest was met with accusations of interference by the Tanzanian government. While the European Union and United States possess tools to influence Tanzania via development aid and diplomatic engagement, strategic interests often temper their response. Without firm pressure from regional and international stakeholders, the prospect of a credible electoral process remains dim.
Domestic observers and civil society groups, despite operating under severe constraints, remain critical to documenting electoral irregularities. As seen in Mozambique’s 2024 elections, where domestic monitors played a pivotal role in exposing fraud, such efforts can promote transparency even in flawed environments. However, Tanzania’s track record of sidelining both local and international observers diminishes the likelihood of widespread oversight in October.
As the 2025 general elections draw near, the political environment in Tanzania reveals a sharp turn from democratic pluralism to authoritarian consolidation. The ruling party’s tightening grip on power, the weaponization of legal and institutional frameworks, and the growing climate of fear and suppression suggest that Tanzanians are heading into an election that is democratic in appearance only. Without urgent, meaningful electoral reforms, the polls risk becoming little more than a ceremonial reaffirmation of CCM’s dominance cementing a political system where true competition is systematically eliminated and the voice of the people is increasingly silenced.
This report was originally published by ISS Today and has been republished with permission as part of our commitment to advancing quality journalism and democratic accountability across Africa.