Former US President Donald Trump is making a bold push to control Ukraine’s vast rare earth and critical mineral reserves, a move he believes could shift global trade dynamics and curb China’s dominance in mineral exports. Trump has reportedly tied the $500 billion valuation of Ukraine’s mineral wealth to ongoing negotiations, seeking it as compensation for US military aid provided during the war. His broader goal is to secure an alternative supply chain that would allow the US to challenge China’s overwhelming control over critical minerals, which are essential for the global technology, defense, and energy industries.
The geopolitical stakes could not be higher. China currently dominates the rare earth market, refining nearly 90 percent of the world’s supply and controlling more than half of the 50 minerals classified as critical by the US government. The United States depends heavily on China for these resources, importing 70 percent of its rare earth metals from Beijing between 2020 and 2023. These minerals are the foundation of modern technology, used in electric vehicles, fighter jets, smartphones, and other advanced systems that power the global economy. Trump has made it clear that breaking this dependency is a top priority, seeing it as a crucial step in his long-term economic strategy to strengthen American industry and weaken China’s influence.
Trump’s trade policies have been aggressive, imposing tariffs and economic restrictions to force China into a weaker position. He has already doubled import levies on Chinese goods to 20 percent and kept a 25 percent duty on the two largest trading partners. However, despite these measures, the US has struggled to find a viable alternative to China’s supply chain dominance. The country remains dependent on Beijing’s minerals for its high-tech industries, and without an immediate replacement, it risks economic vulnerability if China decides to further restrict exports.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated in December 2024 when China imposed an export ban on several key minerals following US restrictions on chip exports. Beijing halted shipments of antimony, gallium, germanium, and super-hard materials while tightening its grip on graphite products. Gallium is an essential component in the defense industry, used in missile systems and radar technology, while graphite is a critical material in electric vehicle batteries and nuclear reactors. China’s actions sent shockwaves through global supply chains, exposing the US’s continued dependence on its mineral production.
Trump’s plan to secure Ukraine’s mineral wealth is driven by these supply chain concerns. Ukraine is estimated to hold approximately 5 percent of the world’s critical raw materials, including millions of tonnes of graphite, a third of Europe’s lithium deposits, and 7 percent of the continent’s titanium supply. The country also possesses substantial reserves of copper, zinc, silver, nickel, and cobalt, as well as rare earth elements essential for high-tech industries. On paper, these resources could offer a path for the US to reduce reliance on China, but the reality is far more complicated.
Since the war with Russia began in 2022, many of Ukraine’s major mining sites and rare earth deposits have fallen under Russian control. Securing access to these resources would require a stable geopolitical climate and a significant rebuilding of Ukraine’s mining infrastructure, which has suffered from years of underinvestment. Without advanced processing facilities, extracting minerals from Ukraine alone would not be enough to meet US demand. The country would need extensive foreign investment to refine and export these resources at a level that could challenge China’s market dominance.
Industry experts have also raised doubts about whether Ukraine truly possesses the level of rare earth deposits that Trump expects. According to Argus Media, global rare earth estimates range between $4 billion and $12.5 billion, making the $500 billion valuation of Ukraine’s reserves difficult to justify. Without concrete data on the full extent of Ukraine’s mineral deposits and its ability to develop large-scale production, Trump’s plan remains speculative at best.
While Trump has long pursued policies to weaken China’s trade power, securing Ukraine’s critical minerals is not a short-term solution. Even if the US successfully gains access to these resources, it would take years of infrastructure development, investment, and policy adjustments before it could significantly reduce dependence on China. The rare earth industry requires highly specialized refining capabilities, and China’s decades-long dominance in this sector means that any attempt to shift supply chains will be met with strong resistance.
Trump’s ambition to reshape global trade and secure America’s position as an industrial leader hinges on breaking China’s grip on critical minerals. The push for Ukraine’s rare earth elements is part of this larger strategy, but it remains uncertain whether it can deliver the immediate results he envisions. As negotiations remain stalled and military aid to Ukraine is paused, the outcome of this geopolitical battle will have lasting consequences for the global economy, energy security, and the balance of power between the world’s major economies.
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