With the presidential primary set for May 25, Nigeria’s ruling party kicks off its most consequential internal election since 2022.
Nigeria’s political temperature has shot up this week as the All Progressives Congress formally launched its nationwide primary elections for the 2027 general elections, beginning with House of Representatives contests across all 36 states. President Bola Tinubu, in a pointed nationwide address, called on party leaders, governors, and aspirants to treat the exercise as a test of democratic character, not a battle for survival. The presidential primary is now fixed for May 25, 2026, putting the country’s most powerful political race on a seven-day countdown.
The stakes could not be higher. General elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 16, 2027, will determine the presidency, the Senate, the House of Representatives, and 28 governorship seats. President Tinubu, who is seeking a second term, has structured the APC primary process around his key political arithmetic: securing overwhelming bloc votes from Lagos, Kano, and Rivers states, which political analysts describe as ‘vote multipliers’ capable of delivering presidential mandates by themselves.
His warning against ‘do-or-die politics’ was not ceremonial. Across multiple states, fierce internal battles have erupted between incumbents, returning governors, and new aspirants. In Lagos alone, 91 screened aspirants are competing for 24 House of Representatives seats, producing a battleground that will reveal the real contours of the president’s grip on his home base. In Bauchi, multiple aspirants claimed victory simultaneously after chaotic scenes at primary venues.
Opposition forces are watching the APC’s internal disorder with cautious optimism. The African Democratic Congress, now home to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi, is in the midst of its own candidate selection. Meanwhile, former presidential candidates Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso have migrated to the Nigeria Democratic Congress, creating a fragmented but energized opposition landscape that could pose a genuine challenge to Tinubu in close states.
Tinubu’s campaign team is banking on economic reform momentum to carry his electoral argument. His administration has pointed to GDP growth exceeding 4 percent annually in 2025, the full commissioning of the Dangote Refinery, foreign exchange liberalization, and the imminent attraction of $20 billion in foreign direct investment as evidence that painful subsidy reforms are delivering dividends. Critics, led by Labour Party’s Peter Obi, counter that headline economic figures mask persistent food insecurity, youth unemployment, and cost-of-living pressures hitting ordinary Nigerians hardest.
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The Electoral Act 2026 governs this cycle’s primaries for the first time, introducing new consensus-building provisions that the APC has leveraged in states where internal conflict was most intense. Second-term governors in particular are being encouraged by Tinubu to transition into Senate candidacies, a strategic move designed to keep loyal political heavyweights within the APC system rather than allowing their networks to drift toward opposition structures.
The Independent National Electoral Commission has confirmed that it will conduct voter registration verification in June, followed by a final voters’ roll update before campaigns officially open in August. With the 2027 elections just eight months away, Nigerian political life has entered its most competitive phase in years. The outcome of the APC primaries this week will set the tone for everything that follows.
Today’s KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- APC House of Representatives primaries commenced May 16; Senate primaries follow May 18; presidential primary scheduled for May 25
- Tinubu targets Kano, Lagos, and Rivers as his three core ‘vote multiplier’ states for presidential re-election
- Peter Obi and Kwankwaso have joined the Nigeria Democratic Congress; Atiku and Amaechi remain with the ADC
- Electoral Act 2026 governs primaries for the first time, enabling consensus candidacy arrangements
- 91 aspirants contest 24 APC House of Representatives seats in Lagos alone, reflecting intense internal competition